High-Speed Broadband Internet and the Rise of Populism: Evidence from Italian Elections
In this paper I study whether exposure to high-speed broadband Internet explains the increasing electoral success of populist parties. Thanks to novel data on high-speed broadband coverage and on the completion dates of a government intervention that expanded exposure to high-speed broadband across Italy, in a difference-in-differences design I assess the impact of being exposed to high-speed broadband prior to elections on the vote share of populist parties, their political non-populist competition and on turnout both at Parliamentary and European elections. I show that municipalities that were exposed to high-speed broadband before the 2018 Parliamentary elections experienced a 2.9 percentage point (6%) increase in support for populist parties relative to municipalities that remained uncovered until after elections. This rise is primarily attributed to parties like the 5 Star Movement and Forza Italia, known for their effective use of online platforms for political campaigning.The decline in support for leftist non-populist parties, and the noisy positive effects on turnout suggest that the channel through which high-speed broadband plays a role is vote switching, rather than connection to a disenchanted electorate. I also show that the effects are less pronounced in European elections, hinting at a "marginal voters mechanism" where high-speed broadband disproportionately influences undecided voters that search online for last minute pieces of information close to election day, leading to a greater persuasion effect at more salient elections. [Draft available upon request]