High-Speed Broadband Internet and the Rise of Populism: Evidence from Italian Elections
Abstract
This paper examines whether exposure to high-speed broadband Internet affects the electoral performance of populist parties. Utilizing a novel dataset that combines detailed broadband coverage information with completion dates for the roll-out of the Italian Strategy for Ultra-Broadband (BUL), I compare political outcomes in municipalities that gained access to high-speed Internet before an election with those that remained disconnected, using difference-in-differences and event-study designs. I find that completion of high-speed broadband networks prior to the 2018 Parliamentary elections significantly increased support for populist parties. Treated municipalities experienced a 3.2-3.4 percentage point rise in the aggregate populist vote share, corresponding to roughly a 7% increase over baseline levels. These gains are driven by "media-savvy" populist parties such as the Five Star Movement and Forza Italia and came primarily at the expense of non-populist left-leaning parties, with no detectable effect on turnout, consistent with vote switching among existing voters rather than mobilization. To shed light on mechanisms, I show that online searches for political content spike immediately before elections and disproportionately focus on populist leaders. Because Italian regulations restrict traditional media coverage during this period, high-speed broadband becomes a key channel for last-minute information acquisition. Consistent with a "marginal voter" mechanism, the effects largely vanish in the lower-salience 2019 European elections, where undecided voters are less likely to turn out and therefore less exposed to online persuasion.